Often we are mislead by ourselves, for example by hindsight bias or also known as the I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon. The tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that we would have foreseen it.
Ex. After the first World Trade Center tower in New York was hit on Septemeber 11, 2001, commentators said people in the second tower should have immediantly evacuated. ( it becomes obvious only later that it was not an accident).
Another one would be Overconfidence of our judgements.
Ex. WREAT --> WATER
How many seconds do you think it would have taken you to unscramble each of these?
People think they would have seen the solution in only 10 sec or so, when in reality the average problem solver spends 3 minutes. Try it yourself. OCHSA. Anwser will be given at the end of this text.
Scientific approach is what help us to keep Illusions apart from reality. Curiosity, Skeptism and humality helps us to perform strong critical thinking which examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence, and assesses outcomes.
Psychological theories organizes observations and imply predictive hypotheses.
Case study (depth study into one individual instead of a popullation or several peopel) describes behavior and suggest hypotheses, but studying an unrepresentative individual may lead to false conclusion.
Surveys are another research source as they gather information from a large number of people. Wording effects (subtle influences in the sequence of phrasing of questions, Ex. people are much moire likely to approve "revenue enhancers" than "taxes") can affect responses. Random Sampling chooses people by chance so it helps researchers archieve a sample that represents the population under study.
Naturalistic Observation is as it says the study of a person in their natural environment. It only describes and cannot explain behaviors.
A correlation coefficient is a statistical mearure of the strength and duration of the relationship between two factors. In a positive correlation (FIG 1. ranging from 0 to + 1.00), the two factors rise or fall together. In a negative correlation (FIG 2. ranging from 0 to - 1.00), one item rises as the other falls. This diagram here is called a scatterplot. A correlation doesn't provide the cause of something, only it's possibility.Ex. Low self- esteem could cause Depression.
or
Depression could cause Low self-esteem
or
Distressing events or biological predisposition could cause both.
There is also illusory Correlation which is when you think there is an relationship between something, even though there is none. Random things happen but we like to make meaningful connections out of them.
Experiments discover cause-effect relationships. They manipulate one or more factors of interest, and contolling other factors. In a double blind procedure neither the researcher nor the participants are receiving the treatment or a placebo. This way the researcher expectations will not influence the experiment.
Statistics help us organize, summarize, and make interferences from data. It is imporatant to think critically when looking at bar graphs as they can be tricky and their range may only have minimal difference but shown as big. There are 3 measures of tendency. The mean, median and mode. Mode would be the most often occured number, median the middle score and mean the arithmetic average which would also be the most used one. There are also 2 measures of variation like the range which is the gap from the lowest number to the hightest and the standard deviation which shows how close the number are to the average. The 3 principles of making generalizations from samples woud be :
1. Representive samples are better than biased samples.
2. Less-variables observations are more reliable than those that are more variable.
3. More cases are better than fewer.
That is another quick summary made by me. If you have questions, corrections, concerns or whatever about it then please comment! I hope you enjoyed :)
Answer for OCHSA --> CHAOS
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